Sell-Through Trend Analysis — 5-Year Performance Review

Volume Is Growing Faster Than Buyer Capacity

Across every vertical, the data shows a consistent pattern: when lead volume grows, sell-through drops. Overall sell-through has fallen from 100% in 2021 to 72.6% in 2026 YTD. However, revenue per sold lead has climbed 43% ($144 → $206 for solar), partially offsetting the decline. The core issue is structural: buyer recruitment is not keeping pace with lead generation growth. Every vertical that expanded rapidly in H2 2025 saw sell-through dip 4-13 percentage points.

🔻 The 2022 Solar Cliff

-17.5pp in one quarter

In Q2 2022, solar volume spiked 50% (90K→135K leads). Sell-through crashed from 99.6% to 82.1%. The business permanently shifted from supply-constrained to demand-constrained.

📈 The Pricing Silver Lining

+43% Rev/Lead

Solar RPL climbed from $134 (2021) to $219 (2025). Roofing RPL went from $163 (2023) to $213 (2024). Higher per-lead prices partially offset sell-through declines.

🔄 The Seasonal Pattern

Q3 = worst quarter

Every year, Q3 (summer surge) brings the lowest sell-through. 2024-Q3 solar hit 74%, 2025-Q3 roofing hit 69.8%. Budget cycles and buyer vacation patterns are structural headwinds.

Sell-Through Rate Over Time

Quarterly sell-through % by vertical — toggle to compare

The Volume–Sell-Through Tradeoff

When volume goes up, sell-through goes down — the buyer capacity ceiling

Solar — Volume vs Sell-Through

Dual axis: bars = lead volume, line = sell-through %

Roofing — Volume vs Sell-Through

Roofing launched Q4 2022, grew 280x in 3 years

Key Finding: In 14 out of 16 quarters where volume grew >20% QoQ, sell-through dropped. The only exceptions were periods where major new buyers were onboarded (Q1 2025 roofing: +39% volume, +4.7pp sell-through). This confirms the fix is buyer recruitment, not lead quality.

Revenue Per Sold Lead — Pricing Trend

Are we getting more per lead even as sell-through declines?

Revenue Per Sold Lead

Quarterly RPL by vertical — higher = better monetization

Revenue Per ALL Leads (Effective Yield)

Revenue ÷ total leads generated — the true efficiency metric

Effective Yield (revenue per total lead generated) is the metric that matters most. Solar yield peaked at $184 in Q1 2023 and is now at $161. Roofing yield peaked at $176 (Q1 2025) and fell to $108 in 2026. This means we're earning less per dollar of ad spend even though per-sold-lead pricing is up.

Total Revenue Over Time

Quarterly revenue by vertical — stacked area

Year-Over-Year Performance Table

Annual summary with direction indicators

🚨 2026 Early Warning Signals

Feb 2026 YTD vs H2 2025 average — are we on track?

📋 What This Means — Action Required

1. Buyer recruitment must match lead growth. Every 20% volume increase needs ~15% more buyer capacity just to maintain sell-through.

2. Q3 needs pre-positioning. Every summer brings a sell-through dip. Pre-recruit buyers in Q2 to absorb the Q3 surge.

3. New verticals are at critical scale. Windows, siding, and bathroom all 4-6x'd volume in 2025. Each needs dedicated buyer recruitment effort immediately.

4. Geo-targeting is the quick win. The media team report shows 64% of unsold leads are in zips with zero buyers. Fix targeting first, then recruit to fill remaining gaps.

5. Protect pricing gains. RPL has climbed significantly — don't sacrifice pricing for volume. The yield curve shows we're past the optimal volume point in several verticals.